Pennsylvania
Future Problem Solving Program

STEP 1 - IDENTIFY CHALLENGES

The key objective in Step 1 is to identify challenges based on the future scene. A challenge is an issue, concern or problem in the future scene that needs attention or consideration (points of importance). Use your knowledge of the topic to determine challenges that cause the future scene or challenges that result from the actions within the future scene. Your goal is 16 well-written challenges.

STEP 1 – Essentials

1.      Student work must relate to the future scene. A future scene is a hypothetical scenario based on current information. In cases where research can be found that contradicts the future scene, the team is still required to problem solve within the boundaries of the given situation.

2.      Step 1 challenges are written in statement form. Questions are inappropriate for this step.

3.      State challenges in terms of possibility. Challenges are stated with possible terms such as may, might, etc. Absolute terms, that indicate idea X will be a challenge, deny an important element of projecting into the future; it is impossible to know what will or will not occur in the future. We can only make educated guesses as to possible occurrences, based on an investigation of the resources.

4.      Challenges should be clearly worded. A challenge logically relates to the future scene, tells what the concern is and why it is a concern.

5.   Students should demonstrate flexibility in their thinking and explore challenges from different perspectives or categories.

Step 1 – Suggestions

1.      Challenges may include those that cause the future scene OR challenges that result from the actions within the future scene. (A challenge does not have to be written as a cause/effect statement). For instance, note the following examples causing and resulting from the future scene on Antarctica:

Cause:      If ships that bring people and supplies to Antarctica leak fuel or oil, then they could harm many of the animals living in the waters surrounding Antarctica.

Result:      If sea animals living in the waters surrounding Antarctica (like krill) are harmed by oil spills, then there might be a disruption in the food chain of the animals living near Antarctica which could result in endangerment or even extinction.

Result:      Tourists visiting Antarctica might not dispose of their trash properly, then their pollution may harm animal habitats endangering Antarctic wildlife.

2.      While it is important to identify challenges that result from the future scene, it is even more important to identify the causes that created the future scene as well as causes of the challenges found in the future scene. Think about the distinction between causes and results and make sure your list of concerns in Step 1 includes a significant number of causes.

Identifying cause is important for getting at underlying issues in a situation. In Step 2 students are asked to identify an underlying problem; significant attention should be given to challenges that cause the future scene.

3.      Teams fail to earn high scores in fluency because information explaining a challenge statement is left "on the problem solving table." In Step 1 students need to explain:

·         what the challenge is,

·         why it is a challenge and

·         how it logically relates to the future scene.

Examine challenge examples a and b from the future scene on Antarctica:

a.      This challenge statement clearly tells what the challenge is, why it is a challenge and how it       logically relates to the future scene.

·         If the use of CFCs continues in 2025 then the ozone layer over Antarctica may be depleted. As a result, increased UV radiation may harm many of the animals and people living in Antarctica.

b.      The next concern uses facts in the future scene to develop a challenge statement that tells what       the challenge is, why it is a challenge and how it logically relates to the future scene.

·         According to the future scene, in 2025, a ship coming to Antarctica leaked oil in the waters around Antarctica. This oil may harm the animals living in these waters if they swallow it or it coats their fur.

The next two challenge examples c and d omit some very important information.

c.      The following challenge statement identifies a challenge (depletion of the ozone layer). Does it tell      why depletion of the ozone is a challenge and how it logically relates to the future scene     (Antarctica)?

·        If people keep using CFCs in 2025, then the ozone layer could be depleted.

d.      The following is a statement of fact from the future scene. As a challenge statement it      does not tell what the challenge is or why it is a challenge. We can infer the challenge is    the oil spill; however, the team must explain why an oil spill is a challenge logically   related to the future scene.

·         According to the future scene, in 2025, a ship leaked oil in the waters around Antarctica.

4.      Write your challenges as statements, not comparisons. For example, the challenge “Oil spills may be greater in the year 2006 than it is now," does not require the evaluator to judge the possibility of oil spills being a future challenge. Rather, it states that oil spills will be a greater challenge in the future than in the present.

5.      Expand your fluency and flexibility by using the generating tools such as brainstorming, forced relationships and checklisting. Think in terms of categories. Subdivide the future scene into two or three general subheadings (e.g., for the future scene on Antarctica you might want to divide the future scene into: Environment or Land, Tourism, Man and Antarctic Treaty.) Then, generate a list of general categories such as recreation, environment, religion, economics, psychological health, animals, education, politics, technology, etc., or use the list on page 12 of this guide. Envision a graph where subheadings go across the top and categories go down the left side. Now, try to find as many challenges as you can for every category in relation to each subheading. Caution:  Not all categories will apply to every topic and future scene.

6.      Demonstrate your research by using terms and concepts in explaining and relating your challenge statements. Citing the source of information is not required, but acceptable.

·         Challenges should include findings from the research as well as students' own thoughts on the topic, based on their analysis of the research or the future scene.

7.      If a challenge or concern is mentioned in the future scene, it can be included in the team's list of challenges, provided the team elaborates on what is stated in the future scene to offer greater insight as to why something is a challenge. Remember to focus on causes of the challenge.

a.      Restating a fact from the future scene is not enough to earn credit as a challenge.

b.      The team must develop the fact, telling what the challenge is, why it is a challenge and demonstrate a logical relationship to the future scene.

8.      Quality is sometimes more important than quantity. Your goal is 16 well-written challenges. It is up to the team to decide if 12 key challenges, that clearly tell what the challenge is, why it is a challenge, and how it relates to the future scene, are better than 16 challenges that only partially address the what, why and how.